This question set is based on Herbst (2017) and focuses on analyzing the impact of universal child care on maternal employment in the United States. Here's a breakdown of how to address each question:
(a) Identification Strategy and What is Identified
The identification strategy likely involves a difference-in-differences (DiD) or triple-difference (DDD) approach to estimate the causal effect of universal child care policies on maternal employment. This approach would compare employment rates of mothers before and after policy implementation, between areas that adopted the policy and those that didn't. The goal is to control for both time-specific and region-specific effects, isolating the effect of child care access on maternal employment. Here, the primary effect identified is the impact of access to universal child care on the likelihood of mothers entering or remaining in the workforce.
(b) Interpretation of the Empirical Model
The empirical model presented is:
Y_{ist} = \beta_1 \text{post}t + \beta_2 (\text{treated}{ist} \times \text{post}t) + \beta_3 (\text{treated}{ist} \times \text{landham}_s) + \beta_4 (\text{post}_t \times \text{landham}s) + \beta_5 (\text{treated}{ist} \times \text{post}_t \times \text{landham}s) + Z{\prime} \psi + S{\prime} \gamma + v_s + \mu{ist}
• Interpretation of \beta_4 : The coefficient \beta_4 measures the interaction between post-policy implementation ( \text{post}_t ) and an indicator for specific locations (e.g., states or regions) defined by a variable \text{landham}_s . This could capture any changes in employment within specific areas after the introduction of the policy, regardless of treatment status.
• Hypothesis for \beta_4 < 0 : The author might hypothesize that in locations with low baseline maternal employment or other constraints, the impact of policy changes might be weaker or even negative due to structural barriers.
(c) Long-Run Effects and Limitations of the DDD Model
The DDD model may not be appropriate for studying long-run effects because such models are designed to capture immediate to medium-term changes post-treatment. Over time, other variables (e.g., evolving labor market dynamics, additional policy changes, or demographic shifts) may confound the impact of universal child care on maternal employment, violating the DDD assumption of parallel trends and making long-term causal inference challenging.
(d) Threat to Internal Validity and Control Strategy
A potential threat to internal validity could be selection bias if certain areas or individuals were more likely to receive the treatment due to factors associated with employment outcomes (e.g., economic conditions, pre-existing infrastructure). The author could address this by including control variables ( Z{\prime} \psi ) for socioeconomic characteristics or fixed effects ( S{\prime} \gamma , v_s ) to control for unobserved heterogeneity across regions and individuals.
(e) Key Findings of the Paper
Key findings likely highlight the direct effects of universal child care on maternal employment, showing positive employment effects among treated mothers. For children, the study might observe developmental outcomes or long-term impacts on educational achievement and social development, indicating broader socioeconomic benefits associated with early access to structured child care.
These answers outline the core concepts you'll need for each question, based on typical interpretations of models used in policy analysis. Make sure to check Herbst (2017) for precise findings and methodology details.
(a) Identification Strategy and What is Identified
The identification strategy likely involves a difference-in-differences (DiD) or triple-difference (DDD) approach to estimate the causal effect of universal child care policies on maternal employment. This approach would compare employment rates of mothers before and after policy implementation, between areas that adopted the policy and those that didn't. The goal is to control for both time-specific and region-specific effects, isolating the effect of child care access on maternal employment. Here, the primary effect identified is the impact of access to universal child care on the likelihood of mothers entering or remaining in the workforce.
(b) Interpretation of the Empirical Model
The empirical model presented is:
Y_{ist} = \beta_1 \text{post}t + \beta_2 (\text{treated}{ist} \times \text{post}t) + \beta_3 (\text{treated}{ist} \times \text{landham}_s) + \beta_4 (\text{post}_t \times \text{landham}s) + \beta_5 (\text{treated}{ist} \times \text{post}_t \times \text{landham}s) + Z{\prime} \psi + S{\prime} \gamma + v_s + \mu{ist}
• Interpretation of \beta_4 : The coefficient \beta_4 measures the interaction between post-policy implementation ( \text{post}_t ) and an indicator for specific locations (e.g., states or regions) defined by a variable \text{landham}_s . This could capture any changes in employment within specific areas after the introduction of the policy, regardless of treatment status.
• Hypothesis for \beta_4 < 0 : The author might hypothesize that in locations with low baseline maternal employment or other constraints, the impact of policy changes might be weaker or even negative due to structural barriers.
(c) Long-Run Effects and Limitations of the DDD Model
The DDD model may not be appropriate for studying long-run effects because such models are designed to capture immediate to medium-term changes post-treatment. Over time, other variables (e.g., evolving labor market dynamics, additional policy changes, or demographic shifts) may confound the impact of universal child care on maternal employment, violating the DDD assumption of parallel trends and making long-term causal inference challenging.
(d) Threat to Internal Validity and Control Strategy
A potential threat to internal validity could be selection bias if certain areas or individuals were more likely to receive the treatment due to factors associated with employment outcomes (e.g., economic conditions, pre-existing infrastructure). The author could address this by including control variables ( Z{\prime} \psi ) for socioeconomic characteristics or fixed effects ( S{\prime} \gamma , v_s ) to control for unobserved heterogeneity across regions and individuals.
(e) Key Findings of the Paper
Key findings likely highlight the direct effects of universal child care on maternal employment, showing positive employment effects among treated mothers. For children, the study might observe developmental outcomes or long-term impacts on educational achievement and social development, indicating broader socioeconomic benefits associated with early access to structured child care.
These answers outline the core concepts you'll need for each question, based on typical interpretations of models used in policy analysis. Make sure to check Herbst (2017) for precise findings and methodology details.
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